Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Day 146: Book Excerpt: Physics of The Future



One of the scientists who is unlocking the secrets of life is Robert Lanza, a man in a hurry. He is a new breed of biologist, young, energetic, and full of fresh ideas—so many breakthroughs to be made and so little time. Lanza is riding the crest of the biotech revolution. Like a kid in a candy store, he delights in delving into uncharted territory, making breakthroughs in a wide range of hot-button topics.
A generation or two ago, the pace was much different. You might find biologists leisurely examining obscure worms and bugs, patiently studying their detailed anatomy and agonizing over what Latin names to give them.
Not Lanza.
I met him one day at a radio studio for an interview and was immediately impressed by his youth and boundless creativity. He was, as usual, rushing between experiments. He told me he got his start in this fast-moving field in the most unusual way. He came from a modest working-class family south of Boston, where few went to college. But while in high school, he heard the astonishing news about the unraveling of DNA. He was hooked. He decided on a science project: cloning a chicken in his room. His bewildered parents did not know what he was doing, but they gave him their blessing.
Determined to get his project off the ground, he went to Harvard to get advice. Not knowing anyone, he asked a man he thought was a janitor for some directions. Intrigued, the janitor took him to his office. Lanza found out later that the janitor was actually one of the senior researchers at the lab. Impressed by the sheer audacity of this brash young high school student, he introduced Lanza to other scientists there, including many Nobel-caliber researchers, who would change his life. Lanza compares himself to Matt Damon’s character in the movie Good Will Hunting, where a scruffy, street-smart working-class kid astonishes the professors at MIT, dazzling them with his mathematical genius.
Today, Lanza is chief scientific officer of Advanced Cell Technology, with hundreds of papers and inventions to his credit. In 2003, he made headlines when the San Diego Zoo asked him to clone a banteng, an endangered species of wild ox, from the body of one that had died twenty-five years before. Lanza successfully extracted usable cells from the carcass, processed them, and sent them to a farm in Utah. There, the fertilized cell was implanted into a female cow. Ten months later he got news that his latest creation had just been born. On another day, he might be working on “tissue engineering,” which may eventually create a human body shop from which we can order new organs, grown from our own cells, to replace organs that are diseased or have worn out. Another day, he could be working on cloning human embryo cells. He was part of the historic team that cloned the world’s first human embryo for the purpose of generating embryonic stem cells.
...
Lanza is riding a tidal wave of discovery, created by unleashing the knowledge hidden within our DNA. Historically, medicine has gone through at least three major stages. In the first, which lasted for tens of thousands of years, medicine was dominated by superstition, witchcraft, and hearsay. With most babies dying at birth, the average life expectancy hovered around eighteen to twenty years. Some useful medicinal herbs and chemicals were discovered during this period, like aspirin, but for the most part there was no systematic way of finding new therapies. Unfortunately, any remedies that actually worked were closely guarded secrets. The “doctor” earned his income by pleasing wealthy patients and had a vested interest in keeping his potions and chants secret.
During this period, one of the founders of the Mayo Clinic kept a private diary when he made the rounds of his patients. He candidly wrote in his diary that there were only two active ingredients in his black bag that actually worked: a hacksaw and morphine. The hacksaw was used to cut off diseased limbs, and the morphine was used to deaden the pain of the amputation. They worked every time. Everything else in his black bag was snake oil and a fake, he lamented sadly.
The second stage of medicine began in the nineteenth century, with the coming of the germ theory and better sanitation. Life expectancy in the United States in 1900 rose to forty-nine years. When tens of thousands of soldiers were dying on the European battlefields of World War I, there was an urgent need for doctors to conduct real experiments, with reproducible results, which were then published in medical journals. The kings of Europe, horrified that their best and brightest were being slaughtered, demanded real results, not hocus-pocus. Doctors, instead of trying to please wealthy patrons, now fought for legitimacy and fame by publishing papers in peer-reviewed journals. This set the stage for advances in antibiotics and vaccines that increased life expectancy to seventy years and beyond.
The third stage of medicine is molecular medicine. We are seeing the merger of physics and medicine, reducing medicine to atoms, molecules, and genes. This historic transformation began in the 1940s, when Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger, one of the founders of the quantum theory, wrote an influential book called What Is Life? He rejected the notion that there was some mysterious spirit, or life force, that animated living things. Instead, he speculated that all life was based on a code of some sort, and that this was encoded on a molecule. By finding that molecule, he conjectured, one could unravel the secret of life. Physicist Francis Crick, inspired by Schrödinger’s book, teamed up with geneticist James Watson to prove that DNA was this fabled molecule. In 1953, in one of the most important discoveries of all time, Watson and Crick unlocked the structure of DNA, a double helix. When unraveled, a single strand of DNA stretches about six feet long. On it is contained a sequence of 3 billion nucleic acids, called A,T,C,G (adenine, thymine, cytosine, and guanine), that carry the code. By reading the precise sequence of these nucleic acids placed along the DNA molecule, one could read the book of life.
The rapid advances in molecular genetics finally led to the creation of the Human Genome Project, truly a milestone in the history of medicine. A massive, crash program to sequence all the genes of the human body, it cost about $3 billion and involved the work of hundreds of scientists collaborating around the world. When it was finally completed in 2003, it heralded a new era in science. Eventually, everyone will have his or her personalized genome available on a CD-ROM. It will list all your approximately 25,000 genes; it will be your “owner’s manual.”
Nobel laureate David Baltimore summed it up when he said, “Biology is today an information science.”

~~Physics of The Future -by- Michio Kaku

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Day 129: Book Excerpt: Future Crimes


Black-Box Algorithms and the Fallacy of Math Neutrality

One and one is two. Two plus two equals four. Basic, eternal, immutable math. The type of stuff we all learned in kindergarten. But there is another type of math—the math encoded in algorithms—formulas written by human beings and weighted to carry out their instructions, their decision analyses, and their biases. When your GPS device provides you with directions using narrow AI to process the request, it is making decisions for you about your route based on an instruction set somebody else has programmed. While there may be a hundred ways to get from your home to your office, your navigation system has selected one. What happened to the other ninety-nine? In a world run increasingly by algorithms, it is not an inconsequential question or a trifling point.

Today we have the following:
•  algorithmic trading on Wall Street (bots carry out stock buys and sells)
•  algorithmic criminal justice (red-light and speeding cameras determine infractions of the law)
•  algorithmic border control (an AI can flag you and your luggage for screening)
•  algorithmic credit scoring (your FICO score determines your creditworthiness)
•  algorithmic surveillance (CCTV cameras can identify unusual activity by computer vision analysis, and voice recognition can scan your phone calls for troublesome keywords)
•  algorithmic health care (whether or not your request to see a specialist or your insurance claim is approved)
•  algorithmic warfare (drones and other robots have the technical capacity to find, target, and kill without human intervention)
•  algorithmic dating (eHarmony and others promise to use math to find your soul mate and the perfect match)

Though the inventors of these algorithmic formulas might wish to suggest they are perfectly neutral, nothing could be further from the truth. Each algorithm is saturated with the profound human bias of the person or people who wrote the formula. But who governs these algorithms and how they behave in grooming us? We have no idea. They are black-box algorithms, shrouded in secrecy and often declared trade secrets, protected by intellectual property law. Just one algorithm alone—the FICO score—plays a major role in each American’s access to credit, whether or not you get a mortgage, and what your car loan rate will be. But nowhere is the formula published; indeed, it is a closely guarded secret, one that earns FICO hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But what if there is a mistake in the underlying data or the assumptions inherent in the algorithm? Too bad. You’re out of luck. The near-total lack of transparency in the algorithms that run the world means that we the people have no insight and no say into profoundly important decisions being made about us and for us. The increasingly concentrated power of algorithms in our society has gone unnoticed by most, but without insight and transparency into the algorithms running our world, there can be no accountability or true democracy. As a result, the twenty-first-century society we are building is becoming increasingly susceptible to manipulation by those who author and control the algorithms that pervade our lives.

We saw a blatant example of this abuse in mid-2014 when a study published by researchers at Facebook and Cornell University revealed that social networks can manipulate the emotions of their users simply by algorithmically altering what they see in the news feed. In a study published by the National Academy of Sciences, Facebook changed the update feeds of 700,000 of its users to show them either more sad or more happy news. The result? Users seeing more negative news felt worse and posted more negative things, the converse being true for those seeing the more happy news. The study’s conclusion: “Emotional states can be transferred to others via emotional contagion, leading people to experience the same emotions without their awareness.” Facebook never explicitly notified the users affected (including children aged thirteen to eighteen) that they had been unwittingly selected for psychological experimentation. Nor did it take into account what existing mental health issues, such as depression or suicidality, users might already be facing before callously deciding to manipulate them toward greater sadness. Though Facebook updated its ToS to grant itself permission to “conduct research” after it had completed the study, many have argued that the social media giant’s activities amounted to human subjects research, a threshold that would have required prior ethical approval by an internal review board under federal regulations. Sadly, Facebook is not the only company to algorithmically treat its users like lab rats.

The lack of algorithmic transparency, combined with an “in screen we trust” mentality, is dangerous. When big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things merge, as they are already doing, we will increasingly have physical objects acting on our behalf in 3-D space. Having an AI drive a robot that brews your morning coffee and makes breakfast sounds great. But if we recall the homicide in 1981 of Kenji Urada, the thirty-seven-year-old employee of Kawasaki who was crushed to death by a robot, things don’t always turn out so well. In Urada’s case, further investigation revealed it was the robot’s artificial intelligence algorithm that erroneously identified the man as a system blockage, a threat to the machine’s mission to be immediately dealt with. The robot calculated that the most efficient way to eliminate the threat was to push “it” with its massive hydraulic arm into the nearby grinding machine, a decision that killed Urada instantly before the robot unceremoniously returned to its normal duties. Despite the obvious challenges, the exponential productivity boosts, dramatic cost savings, and rising profits attainable through artificial intelligence systems are so great there will be no turning back. AI is here to stay, and never one to miss an opportunity, Crime, Inc. is all over it.

~~Future Crimes -by- Marc Goodman